We polled New York City. Here’s what we found
In the final round of RCV, Cuomo leads Mamdani 57-43, and bad news for both Abundance and free buses
We’re excited to release the results of our new poll of New York City voters. We partnered with YouGov to field this poll. Our sample size is N=645 self-identified New York City registered voters, including N=416 (unweighted) who voted or plan to vote in the Democratic mayoral primary, surveyed from June 17 to June 22. The margin of error was +/- 5%, with a margin of error of +/- 6.7% for those who voted or intend to vote in the Democratic primary.
In the first round of the Democratic primary for New York City mayor, Andrew Cuomo leads with 38% of the vote, followed by Zohran Mamdani with 28%, Adrienne Adams with 12%, and Brad Lander with 7%. (New York City uses ranked-choice voting for primary elections. Voters can rank up to five candidates. Suppose no candidate receives a majority of votes in the first round. In that case, the candidate with the fewest votes is eliminated, and their votes are reallocated toward their supporters’ second-ranked candidate. This tabulation process continues until one candidate secures a majority of votes.)
In the final round of tabulation, Andrew Cuomo leads Zohran Mamdani 57-43. Cuomo wins Black (+42) and Hispanic voters (+12), as well as voters earning less than $50,000 per year (+34) or between $50,000 and $100,000 per year (+4). Cuomo also wins voters without college degrees (+44). Mamdani wins white voters (+18), voters earning more than $100,000 per year (+20), and voters with college degrees (+14). Cuomo wins voters between the ages of 45 and 54 (+38), 55 and 64 (+38), and over 65 (+40), while Mamdani wins voters between the ages of 18 and 29 (+14) and 30 to 44 (+36). Each candidate receives 50% of the vote from union households, while non-union households favor Cuomo over Mamdani (+8). Mamdani wins voters who are employed full-time (+8). Mamdani wins voters identifying as liberal (+22), while Cuomo wins self-identified moderates (+56). Cuomo wins male voters (+20) and female voters (+10).
Note that because New York is a closed primary state, the figures above are among respondents who are self-reported registered Democrats and intend to vote or have already voted in the Democratic primary only (N=416 unweighted). Voters were allowed to switch their registration from Republican or unaffiliated to Democratic before the February 14, 2025, deadline, but if they missed this deadline, they cannot vote in the Democratic primary.
It is important to note that the demographic makeup of the actual electorate can differ significantly from polls due to differential turnout rates. Current early voting data, when stratified by borough and assembly district, suggests that the electorate will be relatively whiter, younger, and more affluent. Our data indicates that these demographic trends will benefit Mamdani. If turnout among Cuomo’s base does not pick up on Tuesday, he could massively underperform our poll.
Cuomo and Mamdani are roughly equally popular, but Mamdani is seen as much more liberal
Among all voters in our sample (N=645), 54% had a favorable opinion of Andrew Cuomo, while 40% had an unfavorable opinion (+14 net favorability). 45% had a favorable opinion of Zohran Mamdani, while 35% had an unfavorable opinion (+10). 30% had a favorable opinion of incumbent mayor Eric Adams, while 63% had an unfavorable opinion (-33).
Among Democrats, 60% had a favorable opinion of Andrew Cuomo, while 35% had an unfavorable opinion (net favorability +25). 62% of Democrats had a favorable opinion of Zohran Mamdani, while 22% had an unfavorable opinion (+40).
Mamdani was seen most favorably by young voters: his net favorability was +36 among voters aged 18-29, +47 among voters aged 30-44, -4 among voters aged 45-54, -9 among voters aged 55-64, and -21 among voters aged 65 and up. Views of Cuomo were less polarized by age. Among voters aged 18-29, his net favorability was +17; among voters aged 30-44, it was +7; among voters aged 45-54, it was +22; among voters aged 55-64, it was +23; and among voters aged 65 and up, it was +9.
Among Black voters, Cuomo’s net favorability was +47 while Mamdani’s was +25. Among Hispanic voters, Cuomo’s net favorability was +19 while Mamdani’s was -7. Among white voters, Cuomo’s net favorability was -9 while Mamdani’s was +7. Among women, Cuomo’s net favorability was +16 while Mamdani’s was +11. Among men, Cuomo’s net favorability was +11 while Mamdani’s was +7. Cuomo’s net favorability with non-college voters was +30, while Mamdani was at -6. With college-educated voters, Cuomo’s net favorability was +0, while Mamdani’s was +25.
When asked to describe their own political viewpoint, 17% of respondents said very liberal, 21% said liberal, 39% said moderate, 11% said conservative, and 8% said very conservative. 36% of respondents rated Cuomo as very or somewhat liberal, while 35% rated him as moderate and 18% rated him as somewhat or very conservative. 60% of voters saw Mamdani as very or somewhat liberal, while just 10% saw him as moderate and 5% saw him as very or somewhat conservative. 29% of voters saw Eric Adams as very or somewhat liberal, while 27% saw him as moderate and 26% saw him as very or somewhat conservative.
As part of the survey, we asked respondents to write down what words or phrases they most associate with Andrew Cuomo and Zohran Mamdani. The most commonly selected words for Mamdani were “progressive,” “inexperienced,” “young,” “liberal,” “radical,” “good,” and “antisemite.”
For Cuomo, the most commonly selected words were “governor,” “sexual,” “covid,” and “experienced.”
These results suggest that voters are broadly aware of the sexual harassment and COVID nursing home scandals that ended Cuomo’s governorship. Nonetheless, Cuomo is seen favorably by most New Yorkers and by most Democrats, and boasts a large lead in the final round of ranked-choice voting. Perhaps this is because Mamdani is perceived as a relatively inexperienced and untested candidate.
New Yorkers prefer the status quo over fare-free buses, Abundance
Zohran Mamdani has made fare-free buses a key plank of his affordability platform. When presented as a standalone policy, fare-free buses poll well. However, when voters are presented with tradeoffs, such as buses running less frequently or becoming more crowded, reduced spending on other areas, or higher taxes, a majority (53%) prefer to keep paid bus fares and current levels of service. This is broadly true across demographic groups: majorities of men (56%), women (51%), non-college (53%) and college-educated voters (53%), and Black (51%), Hispanic (50%), and white voters (57%) preferred keeping bus fares. Majorities of voters aged 55-64 (59%) and 65+ (74%) also favored keeping bus fares, as did pluralities of voters aged 18-29 (46%), 30-44 (38%), and 45-54 (46%).
We also tested whether New York City voters preferred an Abundance-style approach to affordable housing development (prioritizing the number of units built over job creation) or an Everything Bagel approach (prioritizing creating good-paying local jobs, even if that means building fewer affordable units). A plurality of New Yorkers (49%) preferred the Everything Bagel approach, while 32% favored the Abundance-style approach, and 10% said that the city government should not build new affordable housing so that neighborhoods can maintain their current character.
Preference for the Everything Bagel approach was consistent across demographics, and particularly pronounced among younger voters. The majority of voters aged 18-29 (57%) and 30-44 (54%), along with pluralities of voters 45-54 (42%), 55-64 (45%), and 65+ (48%) preferred the Everything Bagel approach. Majorities of Black voters (54%) and white voters (52%), along with a plurality of Hispanic voters (42%), preferred the everything bagel approach over the Abundance approach. A majority of college-educated voters (52%) and a plurality of non-college voters (46%) also preferred the Everything Bagel approach. A plurality of men (43%) preferred the Abundance approach, while 57% of women preferred the Everything Bagel approach.
A majority of Black voters (52%) and white voters (54%), along with a plurality of Hispanic voters (38%) and voters of other races (39%), preferred to “hire local workers” for affordable housing solutions. Support for building “as many units as possible” was also relatively strong among Black (38%) and (38%) voters of other races, as well as Hispanic voters (35%), compared to 25% of white voters.
Opposition to building affordable housing was low across all racial groups, with just 3% of Black voters, 10% of Hispanic voters, 14% of white voters, and 15% of voters of other races preferring not to build at all to preserve neighborhood character. Uncertainty was highest among Hispanic voters (17%) and lowest among white (7%), Black (6%), and (8%) voters of other races.
Voters are closer to Cuomo than Mamdani on immigration, split on crime
As part of the poll, we presented voters with positions on immigration drawn from the Cuomo and Mamdani campaigns, as well as language drawn from House Republicans.
From Cuomo: “While the government must address unauthorized immigration and maintain secure borders, recent ICE crackdowns in Los Angeles and New York City are a deeply troubling escalation in immigration enforcement tactics that undermine community trust and the principles of due process.”
From Mamdani: “New York should be the strongest sanctuary city in the country. The city government should prioritize the safety and wellbeing of its immigrant population by refusing to cooperate with the federal government, removing ICE from city facilities, and increasing funding for immigration legal services.”
From House Republicans: “Sanctuary city policies protect criminal illegal aliens, not Americans. New York’s sanctuary policies cost taxpayers billions to house, feed, and provide driver’s licenses for illegal aliens while the cost of rent rises and hospitals are overrun and crime skyrockets.”
We then asked respondents which position comes closest to their personal view, as well as the personal views of Cuomo, Mamdani, and Eric Adams. A plurality (35%) of voters said Cuomo’s view was closest to their own, while 28% said Mamdani’s position was closest to their own, and 26% identified most with the Republican position.
Views on immigration were strongly polarized by age. Pluralities of voters aged 18-29 (40%) and voters aged 30-44 (47%) said Mamdani’s approach was closest to their own, while pluralities of voters aged 45-54 (37%), 55-64 (45%), and 65 and up (41%) said they were closer to Cuomo’s position.
37% of women said Cuomo’s position on immigration was closest to theirs, while 29% said Mamdani’s view was closest to their own, and 22% said the GOP position was closest to their own. Men were more closely divided, with 32% picking Cuomo’s position, 30% picking the Republican position, and 27% picking Mamdani’s position.
College-educated voters were evenly split—36% identified most closely with Cuomo’s position, while 34% were closest to Mamdani’s—while non-college voters were split between Cuomo’s position (33%) and the Republican position (32%). A plurality of white voters (34%) were closest to Mamdani’s position, while pluralities of Black (45%) and Hispanic (34%) voters said they were closest to Cuomo’s position.
44% of voters correctly matched Mamdani to his campaign’s position, while 26% said they were not sure. 36% of voters matched Cuomo to his campaign’s position, while 23% identified him with Mamdani’s. 32% of voters said Eric Adams was closest to the Republican position, while 27% said he was closest to Cuomo’s language.
We used language from the Cuomo and Mamdani campaigns to run a similar question on crime and policing.
From Cuomo: “New York City needs to increase the size of the NYPD, crack down on nuisance and quality of life crimes like retail theft, deploy more officers to crack down on fare evasion on the MTA, and get chronically mentally ill homeless people off the streets and into treatment.”
From Mamdani: “Police have a critical role to play, but right now we’re relying on them to deal with failures of our social safety net. New York City should create a Department of Community Safety to prevent violence before it happens by investing in mental health programs and nonviolent crisis responders.”
Voters were evenly split between Cuomo and Mamdani’s stance on crime and policing: 45% said that Cuomo’s position was closest to theirs, while 43% picked Mamdani’s position, and 12% said something else or were unsure.
Once again, views were strongly polarized by age. Majorities of voters aged 18-29 (50%) and 30-44 (51%) were closer to Mamdani’s approach to crime, while voters aged 45-54 were split 43-42 between Mamdani and Cuomo’s approaches, and majorities of voters aged 55-64 (51%) and 65 and up (56%) favored Cuomo’s approach.
We observed a modest gender gap, too: women were tied between Mamdani’s position 45-43, while men favored Cuomo’s 47-41. 53% of non-college voters said they were closer to Cuomo’s position on crime, while 51% of college-educated voters said they were closer to Mamdani’s. A plurality of white (48%) and Hispanic (47%) voters say they are closer to Cuomo’s position on crime and policing, while a majority of Black voters (51%) say they are closer to Mamdani’s.
49% of voters correctly matched Mamdani to his campaign’s position, while 25% were unsure which position was his. 47% correctly matched Cuomo to his campaign’s position, and 55% said that Eric Adams’ view was closest to the language from Cuomo’s campaign.
Overall, voter knowledge of Mamdani and Cuomo’s respective positions on crime and immigration was relatively high. Pluralities of voters were able to correctly match each candidate to their campaign’s language. This may indicate that these issues are particularly salient to New Yorkers, or that media coverage of the candidates’ views has broken through to voters.
A plurality of New Yorkers oppose sore loser laws
Under current law, candidates in New York who lose a party primary can still run in the general election as the nominee of a different party or as an independent. In 2021, incumbent Buffalo mayor Byron Brown lost the Democratic primary to India Walton, but went on to win the general election as a write-in candidate. Andrew Cuomo has formed the “Fight and Deliver Party” so that he can run in the general election regardless of whether he wins the Democratic primary or not; Mamdani could run on the Working Families Party’s ballot line. A recent poll from the Manhattan Institute found Cuomo leading a hypothetical five-way general election against Mamdani, Curtis Sliwa, Eric Adams, and Jim Walden with 39% of the vote.
In light of this, we asked respondents how they felt about sore loser laws and whether candidates who lose one party’s primary election should be allowed to run in the general election as another party’s candidate. 44% of respondents overall said that candidates who lose a primary should be allowed to run in the general election, while 37% said they should not be allowed to run in the general, and 19% said they were not sure or had no opinion. About 49% of respondents who selected Zohran Mamdani first said candidates who lose the primary should be allowed to run in the general election, and 33% said they should not. Those who ranked Andrew Cuomo first were split on this question, with 41% saying they should be allowed, and 40% saying they should not.
Among our full sample, President Donald Trump’s net job approval rating was -43, with 27% strongly or somewhat approving and 70% strongly or somewhat disapproving of his job performance.
This poll of 645 self-reported registered New York City voters was fielded over web panels from June 17 to June 22 by YouGov. This survey was weighted according age, sex, race, education, New York City borough based on voter registration lists, the U.S. Census American Community Survey, and the U.S. Census Current Population Survey, 2020 Presidential vote and approximate 2024 Presidential vote based on available results, and party registration as provided by the New York City Board of Elections. The margin of error is +/- 5% overall, and +/- 6.7% for those who voted or intend to vote in the Democratic primary.
Full toplines and crosstabs are available here.
From YouGov: Due to a technical error in calculating the RCV results, when we initially calculated a summary RCV table, that summary result presented a voting round including a candidate who should have been dropped in the prior round. Aside from this summary table, this technical error did not impact any other data in the survey nor the underlying data. We have addressed this discrepancy, and we regret this error.
Wow, this was really wrong. I’m sure you’ll get right on figuring out why.
Great poll. Very interesting to see how New Yorkers split on the abundance vs everything bagel approach to affordable housing. Hopefully, as the public learns more about abundance, those numbers will shift!